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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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