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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.